Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.017969 0.020367 0.022971 0.026009 0.029458 0.033254 0.037751
2025-06-08 0.013941 0.017178 0.020999 0.025846 0.031840 0.039019 0.048287
2025-06-15 0.012112 0.015795 0.020397 0.026579 0.034684 0.044972 0.059063
2025-06-22 0.010207 0.013939 0.018821 0.025693 0.035141 0.047717 0.065799
2025-06-29 0.008944 0.012710 0.017839 0.025354 0.036124 0.051064 0.073475
2025-07-06 0.007772 0.011442 0.016620 0.024485 0.036182 0.053017 0.079243
2025-07-13 0.007299 0.011103 0.016651 0.025362 0.038768 0.058737 0.090961
2025-07-20 0.006831 0.010710 0.016540 0.025982 0.040983 0.064047 0.102504
2025-07-27 0.006466 0.010427 0.016554 0.026768 0.043485 0.069968 0.115509
2025-08-03 0.005935 0.009827 0.016007 0.026591 0.044402 0.073417 0.124770
2025-08-10 0.005502 0.009341 0.015590 0.026570 0.045544 0.077284 0.135025
2025-08-17 0.005037 0.008755 0.014953 0.026111 0.045880 0.079792 0.143114
2025-08-24 0.004754 0.008462 0.014797 0.026485 0.047730 0.085122 0.156828
2025-08-31 0.004402 0.008020 0.014344 0.026295 0.048560 0.088732 0.167784
2025-09-07 0.004230 0.007881 0.014412 0.027042 0.051150 0.095718 0.185668
2025-09-14 0.003838 0.007302 0.013631 0.026140 0.050557 0.096735 0.192160
2025-09-21 0.003561 0.006915 0.013169 0.025795 0.050987 0.099697 0.202705
2025-09-28 0.003243 0.006421 0.012464 0.024911 0.050274 0.100360 0.208644
2025-10-05 0.003164 0.006390 0.012647 0.025803 0.053187 0.108442 0.230619
2025-10-12 0.003060 0.006299 0.012702 0.026435 0.055615 0.115733 0.251592
2025-10-19 0.002980 0.006248 0.012834 0.027234 0.058456 0.124109 0.275683
2025-10-26 0.002806 0.005989 0.012517 0.027054 0.059184 0.128069 0.290370
2025-11-02 0.002661 0.005778 0.012283 0.027033 0.060251 0.132837 0.307308